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BUFFALO, N.Y. — New York saw a significant increase in early voting compared with the last midterm election in 2022. But what do those numbers actually tell us about voter engagement heading into Election Day?

Just shy of 2 million New Yorkers cast their ballots during the nine days of early voting this year, according to the state Board of Elections, which is a significant jump from the last midterm election of about 1.2 million New Yorkers. But more people voting early may not necessarily mean more people voting overall.

Compared with the last midterm in 2022, early voting increased by nearly 67% statewide and about 19% nationwide, while about 2.9 million people statewide and about 85 million people nationwide voted early for the 2024 presidential election, according to the Associated Press.

“Just shy of two million New Yorkers turned out in those nine days of early voting," said director of public information for the New York State Board of Elections Kathleen McGrath. "In 2022, we had 1.17 million New Yorkers participate in those nine days of early voting. So it is up significantly from four years ago.”

McGrath said the increase is happening across the state, with more voters getting comfortable with early voting since New York first introduced it in 2019. And with nine days available, including two weekends and weekday evenings, voters have more flexibility. But according to University at Buffalo political scientist Shawn Donahue, there may be more than convenience at play.

“A lot of people are getting text messages, phone calls, people knocking doors, encouraging them to early vote," said Donahue. "Because if the Democratic Party or the Republican Party thinks that you’re going to be a voter for them when the votes are counted, they aren’t having to track you down on Election Day.”

However, Donahue cautioned against assuming that a surge in early voting automatically means a surge in overall turnout.

“Sometimes the mistake that some people make when looking at early voting," said Donahue. "Is this somebody that would have, if you didn't have early voting, would have voted on Election Day? So it’s kind of a term that we call you’re kind of cannibalizing your vote.”

The real test comes Tuesday, when voters head to the polls. And the final turnout picture won't be clear until ballots are counted and election results are certified.

“Expect to see a huge turnout," said McGrath. "There’s a lot of people that really like to vote on Election Day, even when you offer various mail ballots and the nine days of early voting. A lot of people just like that buzz and excitement of going on Election Day.”

Donahue believes the biggest factor behind this surge in midterm early voting is voter enthusiasm, and people feeling a sense of urgency to make their voice heard, especially on hot topics. The polls in New York open at 6 a.m. Tuesday and close at 9 p.m. Tuesday. And if you’re in line when polls close, make sure to stay in line because you’ll still be allowed to vote.